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In a previous paper,
meteorological circumstances of myocardial infarctions,
cerebrovascular attacks and suicide attempts were studied
by an univariate method.
The present work
used the same clinical reports, collected by the Medical
Emergency Assistance System (SAMU) in the Paris area from 1975
to 1977, but with multivariate calculations.
The 150 predictive indicators were submitted to progressive
ascending selection. Selected indicators were then combined
into a composite index by linear canonic discrimination.
This index was tested in terms of successful prediction.
The 150 indicators
were: 1, meteorological variables, recorded at ground
level, such as wind and temperature (expressed respectively
in 28 and 24 ways), air pressure, moisture; 2, variables
computed from data recorded in altitude; 3, polluants; 4,
non-meteorological indicators, such as days of the week,
season, solar activity; 5, the past of the predictand, i.e.
the frequency of infarctions during the previous days; 6,
types of weather, defined after confronting meteorological
maps with clinical data. The coding of qualitative data
required a new procedure.
The event to be
predicted, which occurred only once a week, was an in
incidence of infarctions of at least twice the average.
The percentage of successful predictions was 78.7 %.
The type of weather was far the best indicator.
Detrimental circumstances were changing weathers, with
in order of decreasing correlations, atmospheric fluxes
coming from S-SE, E, SW and NW.
These results complete those of univariate analysis. They
validate a simple and efficient predictive method, similar
in its principle to that used in Germany.
- Besançon F,
Pezzi-Girault D, Rocquin-Chaptal E, Ricome H:
Circonstances météorologiques des infarctus
du myocarde, accidents vasculaires cérébraux
et tentatives de suicide au voisinage de Paris.
Presse Therm Clim 1981; 118 (4): 189-198
- Cohen JC, Megreditchian G ter, Gerbier N, Choisnel E,
Pezzi-Girault D, Pasteyer J, Poisvert M,
Besançon F:
Prévision des recrudescences d’infarctus du
myocarde, fondée sur une analyse météorologique
multivariée.
Sem Hôp 1984; 60 (9): 598-601
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